The Minnesota Vikings (7-1) travel to the Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills (6-2) on Sunday in a non-conference match-up. The Buffalo Bills are in first place in AFC East after collecting six wins from eight games so far in the regular season, while seven wins in eight matches leaves Minnesota Vikings first in the NFC North. Having won 27-23 in their last matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, the Buffalo Bills are hoping for a repeat, and considering the current odds, the home side should be able to do just that.

Form Buffalo Bills

The Buffalo Bills will want to prove last week’s 20-17 defeat to the New York Jets was nothing more than a slight bump on the road, as they’ve been in excellent form otherwise. They’ve bagged four wins in their past five matches, leaving them 7-3 in the last 10 overall.

A strong offense has been a highlight for the Buffalo Bills this season. The unit ranks sixth in the NFL’s offensive ladder with 27.5 points per game and has put up 25.8 points in the last five matches alone. On the defensive side of the ball, there has been no letup whatsoever. The hosts boast one of the stingiest defenses in the entire country, allowing just 14.8 points per game for this season, and have remained formidable in the past five games, having only given up 16.0 points on average.

As the reigning AFC East champions, a successful title defense is a priority for the Buffalo Bills right now. By doing so, they’ll seal a playoff spot and a more favorable tie at home.

Form Minnesota Vikings

Form is really looking good for the Minnesota Vikings after claiming a 17-20 win against Washington Commanders last week. The victory extended their winning streak to six matches, improving their regular season record to 7-1. They are also 3-1 on the road.

In terms of points added, it’s fair to say the Minnesota Vikings have a strong and consistent offense. The unit has put 27.0 points on board in the last five matches after all, while averaging 24.1 points for this season. On the other side of the ball, the defense has been relatively average in the league recently. The visitors have given up 21.2 points in the previous five outings, which is more or less on par with the 20.1 points they’ve allowed per game over the course of the regular season.

In 2021, the Minnesota Vikings came home in second place in the NFC North standings after going 8-9 across all games. The visitors naturally hope to go even better this season. However, like every other team in the NFL, sealing a spot in the playoffs during this regular season is the first and foremost priority for now.

H2H

The Buffalo Bills won their last two matches against the Minnesota Vikings. The latest game finished with a 27-23 score on August 2019, while the game before that ended in a 6-27 victory on September 2018. The implied probability of a third straight win for the Buffalo Bills (1.36) is at 74%. The Buffalo Bills have enjoyed the upper hand over the Minnesota Vikings from their previous eight matchups. The home side celebrated five wins to go 5-3 in this series and will look to continue their dominance at the Highmark Stadium.

While the Buffalo Bills averaged 18.25 points, the Minnesota Vikings performed an average of 20.5 points in their eight most recent head-to-head games.

Standings

Betting

Moneyline

We’re taking the Buffalo Bills (-192) for the outright win on the moneyline. The 3-0 hosts seem to relish going up against NFC North opposition, especially at the Highmark Stadium. They’ve won three of their last four home matchups against NFC North teams. As the 1.36 favorites, the Buffalo Bills have about a 74% chance of victory again at the Highmark Stadium. The Minnesota Vikings will do their utmost to spoil the party, but their 3-5 record in this series has us siding with a home win.

Spread

The Buffalo Bills (-110) are -6.5 point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings in the Week 10 betting lines. This leaves the hosts favored to take the win by more than a touchdown on Sunday. An average 7.4 point winning margin was the difference between the Buffalo Bills and the Minnesota Vikings across their last five meetings. The spread itself was only 1.9 points off in these games. For the latest showdown, the oddsmakers have the spread set at 6.5.

All things considered, we like the look of taking the Buffalo Bills for this matchup as they have covered the spread in four of their last five games at home. In their previous ten games overall, the Buffalo Bills went 5-4 ATS.

The Minnesota Vikings, meanwhile, enter this matchup with decent stats on both sides of the ball. They have the 15th-best offensive record, having put up 24.1 points per game, and rank eighth in defense after allowing 20.1 points on average this season. That said, the visitors are only 1-4 ATS from their six most recent road trips, as well as 3-6 ATS in their last ten games overall.

Total

The points total in matches between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings tends to sway to the lower side, as they have averaged 38.75 points in their last eight meetings.

The average total in the last five encounters between the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings was 35.8 points. As the total for their latest showdown is set at 46.0, taking the Under (-110) might just be worth its weight in gold.

The total has gone under in eight of the Buffalo Bills’ last nine games. Against the total, the Buffalo Bills have gone over in each of their past three home games, but they are only 2-8 in the last 10 rounds overall.

The total has gone under in four of the Minnesota Vikings’ last five games played on the road. Going on the road doesn’t always seem to produce the expected number of points for the Minnesota Vikings, as the total has gone under in six of the past nine matchups matches away from home.