A battle for AFC bragging rights takes place on Sunday as the Cleveland Browns (2-3) take on the New England Patriots (2-3) at the FirstEnergy Stadium. The Cleveland Browns are in second place in AFC North after collecting two wins from five games so far this season, while two wins in five matches leaves New England Patriots fourth in the AFC East. The visitors are on a high after recently snapping out of a losing run in style, and they now look to snatch a road win over a struggling Cleveland Browns.
Form Cleveland Browns
The Cleveland Browns lost their second match in a row when the Los Angeles Chargers beat them 30-28 in Week 5. The hosts are 4-6 in their past 10 games overall and have lost two of the last three at home.
From five games this season, the Cleveland Browns have scored a solid 26.6 points on average. This gives them bragging rights as one of the league’s top-scoring offenses. The art of defending isn’t something the Cleveland Browns excel in though. By allowing 25.0 points per game, their defense has been below average compared to the rest of the league this year.
Form New England Patriots
The New England Patriots smashed the Detroit Lions in a 29-0 shutout to end a two-match losing streak in Week 5. They are 3-7 in their past 10 games and 1-4 in their last five on the road.
The New England Patriots will bring a middle-of-the-pack offense to their latest game on the road, putting up 20.6 points per game this season. Their defense has been average compared to the rest of the league, with 19.6 points allowed across five matches so far.
The New England Patriots downed the Cleveland Browns by 45-7 at the Gillette Stadium, the last time these two franchises played each other. Judging by the way the past eight head-to-head matches played out, the visitors are probably savoring this latest match-up. They have won seven times and only lost once.
While the Cleveland Browns scored 17.63 points per game in these eight head-to-head games, the New England Patriots put up 31.63 points on average.
As things stand, both teams won’t make the postseason. They are below .500 after five games in the regular season, but each team has a positive point differential. The New England Patriots are dead last in the AFC East and 1-2 on the road, while the Cleveland Browns are third in the AFC North and 1-2 at home.
Take the New England Patriots (+165) to win outright on the moneyline for the upcoming match at the FirstEnergy Stadium. They look the better pick of the two sides, having gone 2-3 in the last five matches. The Cleveland Browns are at home, but the New England Patriots have had their number at the FirstEnergy Stadium of late. The visitors won the last round away to the Cleveland Browns, and we see no reason why they can’t win again on Sunday.
The oddsmakers are siding with the Cleveland Browns on the spread, but not by much. The hosts open up as -3.5 point favorites over the New England Patriots for Sunday’s matchup. The last five games between the Cleveland Browns and New England Patriots have produced an average winning margin of 18.6 points, but the oddsmakers misjudged the spread by 7.1 points on average. The current spread is set at 3.5.
However, as the Cleveland Browns have only covered the spread in half of their past 10 home rounds, they’re a bit too 50/50 for my liking.
I like the England New Patriots (+350) instead. They have gone 2-0 against the spread in their last two matches and have beaten the Cleveland Browns in seven of their last eight meetings. This makes them the obvious choice for me.
The last eight clashes between the Cleveland Browns and the New England Patriots produced an average of 49.26 points, and saw the total go over seven times.
Cleveland Browns enjoy entertaining the home crowd as the over-market paid out in their last five matches at the FirstEnergy Stadium. All in all, they are 6-4 in their last 10 home and away games combined.
On the other hand, the total has only gone over in three of the last 10 road trips for the New New England Patriots, who are also 5-5 in their last 10 home and away games. Take the OVER 41.50 (-110) here for this match.