The Detroit Lions (1-5) welcome the Miami Dolphins (4-3) to Ford Field on Sunday for a Week 8 matchup in the NFL. Almost halfway into the regular season, the Detroit Lions currently have the league’s worst record. The hosts are 1-5, bottom of the NFC North, and three wins behind the 4-3 Miami Dolphins, who are third in the AFC East. They may have won the last three matchups in this series, but their barren run of form has caused the oddsmakers to side with a road win for the Miami Dolphins.
Form Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions got hammered 24-6 by the Dallas Cowboys in Week 7 for a fourth straight defeat. They are now just 3-7 in their past 10 games and 2-3 in their last five at home.
While six points in the last two matches are nothing to brag about, the Detroit Lions seem to step up at Ford Field. The offense has averaged 38.7 points in three home games after all. This is the league’s second-best points record at home, although a poor defense puts a stain on this feat. The defensive unit has allowed the most points of any NFL team this season at 32.3 points and has also given up 37.7 points at home.
Form Miami Dolphins
The Miami Dolphins snapped out on a three-game losing skid in Week 7 by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 16-10. They are 6-4 in their past 10 games overall and 2-3 in the last five on the road.
In terms of offense and defense, the Miami Dolphins are middle of the pack in both units. The offense has produced 21.0 points per game this season. However, while the defense has allowed 23.6 points on average, it has given up the most road points in the league at 35.0 points.
The Detroit Lions won 32-21 against the Miami Dolphins in their most recent matchup, which took place at the Hard Rock Stadium in October 2018. The victory extended their winning streak to three games in this series, leaving them 5-7 against the Miami Dolphins overall.
In these past 12 rounds between the two teams, the Detroit Lions averaged 20.0 points and the Miami Dolphins produced 26.6 points per game.
Fresh from returning to winning ways last week, the Miami Dolphins are back in playoff contention. They may only be third in the AFC East, but their 4-3 record has played sixth in the AFC Conference. This certainly puts the 1-5 Detroit Lions under the spotlight, with the hosts sitting bottom of the NFC North and NFC Conference standings.
Take the Miami Dolphins (-175) for the outright win on the moneyline.
While the Detroit Lions have won the last three matchups against the Miami Dolphins, the last win was in October 2018. Considering this happened four years ago, the head-to-head stats here are a little irrelevant as both teams have changed since back then.
Instead, we look to the present where the Detroit Lions are 1-5 SU in their last six matches and winless in the past four. They’ve also won none of their previous nine matchups against AFC opponents, going 0-8-1 SU. The Miami Dolphins, on the other hand, are 12-4 SU in their last 16 games.
A one-score game seems to be where the smart money lies, as the last four rounds between the Detroit Lions and the Miami Dolphins produced an average winning margin of 7.25 points.
Our pick for the spread lies with the Detroit Lions (-110) as the 3.5-point underdogs. The hosts are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games and 6-1 ATS in their past seven home matches.
This has us sold on the home team, especially as the Miami Dolphins are only 1-4 ATS in their previous five outings. They have also allowed 35.0 points on the road this season, which could spell trouble if the Detroit Lions’ offense can click into gear for this latest matchup.
The average total in the last four encounters between the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins was 46.75 points. As the total for their latest showdown is set at 51.50 points, taking the Under (-110) might be worth a shot.
Furthermore, the total has gone under in four of the Miami Dolphins’ past five matches and in five of their last seven road trips.
As the Detroit Lions, the total has gone Over in six of their previous eight games. However, when it comes to playing against teams from the AFC East, the Under has paid out seven times in the last nine games.