New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions NFL match analysis, predictions and odds

Detroit Lions travel to the Gillette Stadium to face the New England Patriots on Sunday in Week 5. Both teams have posted dismal 1-3 records in this regular season. The New England Patriots hold second place in the AFC East, while the Detroit Lions are fourth in the NFC North. The visitors arrive at the Gillette Stadium as big outsiders to stop the New England Patriots. The home side should be able to book this one as a win, considering how highly they are favoured by the oddsmakers.

New England Patriots Form

Things appear to be going from bad to worse for the New England Patriots, who are 3-7 in their past 10 games. They suffered a second straight defeat last time out, losing 27-24 to the Green Bay Packers after overtime, and are 2-3 in the last 5 at home.

While 18.5 points a game is a dire outlook from the offense, the defense hasn’t been so bad in allowing 24.5 points on average when you consider that the New England Patriots have gone up against some of the league’s most potent offenses in their four games this season.

Detroit Lions Form

Things aren’t looking great for the Detroit Lions either, having gone 3-7 in their past 10 matches. A fourth defeat in five games came about at the weekend when the Seattle Seahawks bested them in a 48-45 showdown. They’ve won just once in their last 10 road trips.

The Detroit Lions have seen the best and worst of both sides of the ball. Their offense leads the league in scoring at 35.0 points in four games this season, but their defense has allowed the most points of any NFL team at the same time after conceding 35.3 points on average.

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions H2H

After losing the previous round 26-10 in September 2018, the New England Patriots avenged their defeat against the Detroit Lions last time out by beating them 3-31 at the Ford Field. New England Patriots can’t wait to welcome Detroit Lions at the Gillette Stadium, no doubt expecting to continue their dominant display against their coming visitors. They are 5-3 in the last 8 meetings and have won both of their last 2 encounters at home.

New England Patriots scored 24.63 points on average per game in their 8 most recent meetings against the Detroit Lions. The latter managed an average of 23.13 points per game.

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions Standings

Both teams are 1-3, bottom of their respective divisions, and on two-match losing streaks. The most significant difference between them is their offense and defense numbers. The Detroit Lions have a point differential of -1, which is far better than the -24 record from the New England Patriots, who are also winless at home (0-1).

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions Betting


This game is tough to call, as the spread is small. The two teams are 1-3, on two-match losing streaks, and desperate to get a win on board.

The Detroit Lions have had an extended rest after not playing last weekend, but a run of eight defeats in their last 10 games on the road has me siding with the New England Patriots (-167) to win outright on the moneyline.


The New England Patriots and the Detroit Lions covered the spread in half of their last 8 encounters.

The New England Patriots are 6-4 ATS at home and 3-6 ATS overall in the last 10 games. In contrast, the Detroit Lions are 7-3 ATS on the road and 6-4 ATS overall from the same number of matches. I’m taking the Detroit Lions (3.00) to cover the spread.


The last 8 games between the New England Patriots and the Detroit Lions offered a decent average of 47.76 points on the board.

8 of the 9 most recent matches at the Gillette Stadium went over for the New England Patriots. All in all, they are 6-4 in their last 10 games home and away.

The last 2 away matches Detroit Lions played saw the points total go under. Looking back over the last 10 games on the road for the Detroit Lions, only 3 went over the total. They are 7-3 in the over/under market across their last 10 home and away games combined. I’m taking the over (-110).